Occupancy · 05
Forward occupancy
Today is a measurement. Ninety days out is a forecast, and a forecast is only useful if every component is labelled by how it was produced. Three of the five below are measured. Two are modelled, and the model for each is stated.
Today
86.7%
Measured from your inventory
30 day
87.2%
Mostly contracted, low variance
90 day
85.9%
Two modelled components, wide variance
Confidence band
±140 bps
At 90 days, on the model as specified
Today to ninety days, decomposed
Occupied desks running total across each component
Green adds occupied desks. Red removes them or adds to the denominator. New capacity is dilutive by construction and is the largest single negative in the set.
Waterfall components
Each step, its size, and how it was produced
| Component | Change | Occupancy after step | Basis | Note |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Committed move-ins | +4,180 | 90.0% | Measured | Signed and dated. Contracts already in the system. |
| Notices served | -2,470 | 88.1% | Measured | Members who have given written notice. |
| Renewal at risk | -1,640 | 86.8% | Modelled | Modelled from verified intent captured on renewal calls. |
| Expansion signal | +2,310 | 88.6% | Modelled | Modelled from headcount and desk-need signals inside the member book. |
| New capacity opening | -3,900 | 85.9% | Measured | Desks entering the denominator before they fill. Dilutive by construction. |
The honest caveat
Neither modelled component existed before the voice layer
Committed move-ins, notices served and the new capacity schedule are already in your systems, and a spreadsheet can forecast from them. Renewal risk and expansion signal are not in any system, because nobody has the hours to ask every account every month what is actually happening. That is the whole argument for the layer, and it is also the reason the ninety day band is wide until the model has been run against your own outcomes for two quarters. The band narrows with data. It does not narrow with confidence.
Demo dataFigures on this screen are illustrative, from a deterministic model, for walkthrough purposes only.